October 21, 2010
E-Communiqué
On November 2, 2010, Floridians will need to make important decisions on the six amendments listed on the ballot. Perhaps the most important vote – certainly the one with the largest economic and fiscal consequences – is the vote on Amendment 4, which would require all changes to city and county local government comprehensive land use plans be approved by local voters through referenda. The new economic impact analysis, Land Use Planning by Referendum: The Economic Consequences of Amendment 4, conducted by the Florida Council of Economic Advisors at Florida TaxWatch and a team of researchers from the Haas Center for Business Research and Economic Development at the University of West Florida details the future economic impact of the passage of Amendment 4, which has a significant effect on jobs, income, and the taxpayer’s wallet.
The new analysis assesses the likely impacts on employment, income, and the fiscal position of local governments across the state. According the analysis, passage of Amendment 4 would result in significant long term losses in jobs, economic activity, and personal income.
The study estimates that Amendment 4 would cost:
- More than 260,000 jobs
- $16.7* billion in personal income
- $21.6 billion* in Gross State Product
- $2.2 billion* in state tax revenue
- $227 million loss in property taxes – approximately $3.4 million per county
(*Estimates are average over six years in constant 2010 dollars)
Under the scenario deemed “most likely” by the study, the passage of Amendment 4 would have devastating implications for Florida, especially given the current economic and fiscal conditions in the state. Among some of the effects found was a steep decrease in jobs, particularly high-wage jobs, over the next three years, losses in personal income that persist over time, decreased housing affordability, and lower tax revenue collections, which may lead to the need for increases taxes and fees in order to fill the budget gap created by Amendment 4.
The analysis was conducted by a team of economists at the Haas Center at the University of West Florida using Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) model – a dynamic forecasting tool used by the Florida Legislature – to estimate the effects on Florida’s economy. The assumptions, methodology, and findings have been found to be credible and valid by two independent reviews of the study conducted by prominent economists in Florida.
The report concludes that, instead of risking hundreds of thousands of jobs as well as our state’s economic recovery by marking up Florida’s Constitution, Florida should focus on making improvements to the existing growth management structure and process to ameliorate growth management issues to promote healthy investment that will allow Floridians to compete and prosper in the new 21st century.
Click here to view the full economic impact analysis Report, Land Use Planning by Referendum: The Economic Consequences of Amendment 4 or visit www.FloridaTaxWatch.org for further details on the economic effects of Amendment 4 on Florida’s economy and taxpayers in the short and long term. |
